Open World assessment flags Call of Duty and EA Sports FC as most at risk from GTA 6
RUMOR
Gaming consultancy Open World has named competitive shooters and sports games as the genres most exposed when Grand Theft Auto VI launches, GamesIndustry.biz reports. Call of Duty and EA Sports FC sit on the at-risk list alongside Battlefield, Apex Legends, Fortnite and NBA 2K. The assessment measures overlap and intent, though, not actual player losses. Several headlines have skipped that distinction.
What we know
Take-Two’s SEC Form 8-K earnings release lists Grand Theft Auto VI for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S with a release date of November 19, 2026. That is the only hard date in this file.
GamesIndustry.biz reports that Open World ran a risk assessment of which games stand to lose players to GTA 6. The firm named Call of Duty, Battlefield, Apex Legends, Fortnite, EA Sports FC and NBA 2K as most at risk. The method combines historical player overlap with GTA titles and players’ stated intent to play at launch.
According to the same report, Open World’s survey data suggests 69% of PC and console gamers plan to play GTA 6. GamesIndustry.biz also cites Sensor Tower estimates putting US digital pre-orders at 6.08 million as of October 13, worth $594 million in revenue. Both are third-party figures. Neither Rockstar nor Take-Two has published those numbers.
Counter-Strike 2 is the outlier, per GamesIndustry.biz. A higher share of its players have played a GTA game, but fewer intend to play GTA 6 at launch. It is also not on console, where GTA 6 is launching.
Open World found that players of driving and movement-focused games are the most likely to turn to GTA 6, followed by players drawn to “high-stakes sessions” and open-world gameplay. The consultancy advises developers to avoid major content updates and paid marketing during the launch window.
The assessment was published on October 21, 2026, roughly a month before launch.
What we don’t know yet
How many players any of these games will actually lose. The assessment identifies audiences likely to shift attention. It does not estimate how many will leave, how long they stay away, or whether they return. An outside write-up from Tech-insider.org makes the same point. That outlet is not on our approved list, so treat its view as analysis. The underlying method, as GamesIndustry.biz describes it, supports the reading on its own.
The full detail of Open World’s methodology is not in hand. This desk could not retrieve the original GamesIndustry.biz article and is working from secondary summaries that attribute the findings to it. Sample sizes, regional breakdowns and per-franchise scores are not available to us.
How the pre-order estimate compares with Rockstar’s internal figures is also unknown. Take-Two has not confirmed it.
What it means
Read the list as a map of shared audiences, not a casualty report. A franchise appearing on it means its players overlap heavily with GTA’s and many say they plan to pick up GTA 6. It does not mean Call of Duty or EA Sports FC will empty out in November.
The more practical signal is the advice to other publishers. Open World is telling studios not to spend marketing money or drop major updates into the GTA 6 launch window. Whether publishers follow that, and how their seasonal roadmaps shift around November 19, is the thing to watch.
The GTA 6 date has already moved twice. Rockstar and Take-Two announced the game on December 4, 2023 with a 2025 window. Take-Two moved it to May 26, 2026 on May 2, 2025, then to November 19, 2026 on November 6, 2025. That date still holds in Take-Two’s filings. Every rival’s calendar is built around it.
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