Sensor Tower estimates GTA 6 preorders top 6 million, $594 million

RUMOR

Sensor Tower estimates that Grand Theft Auto VI digital preorders passed 6 million units and $594 million as of its October 13, 2026 tracker snapshot. This is a third-party estimate, not Rockstar data, and neither Rockstar nor Take-Two has released a unit count. GamesIndustry.biz reports that the same analysis puts GTA 6 well ahead of every major release it was measured against.

LaunchCONFIRMED A Rockstar confirmed November 19, 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S at $79.99

Lead over rivalsCONFIRMED B GamesIndustry.biz reports Sensor Tower has GTA 6 148% ahead of Modern Warfare 2, US digital only

Launch projectionRUMOR B Sensor Tower's Karl Kontus projects about 25 million by launch, per GameSpot

Worldwide scopeDEBUNKED B GamesIndustry.biz and WN Hub describe the data as US digital preorders only

Official countNOT ANNOUNCED A Rockstar and Take-Two have released no preorder figures

What we know

Rockstar confirmed that preorders opened June 25, 2026 at midnight local time, following an announcement the day before. The game launches November 19, 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. The Standard Edition costs $79.99. The Ultimate Edition has been reported at $100.

Rockstar’s store listing shows pre-load starting November 12, 2026. Physical editions are code-in-box only, with no disc.

GamesIndustry.biz reports that Sensor Tower’s analysis has GTA 6 running 148% ahead of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 at the same point before launch. The comparison set also includes Diablo 4, Hogwarts Legacy and Marvel’s Spider-Man 2. The analysis tracks only digital preorders in the United States.

Take-Two has not given numbers, but it has not been quiet either. GameSpot reports that on Take-Two’s latest earnings call, likely the August 7, 2026 call, Strauss Zelnick said of GTA 6 preorders: “No one’s ever seen anything like this before at Take-Two, or in the industry.” Per GameSpot’s report of the same call, Zelnick also said Take-Two had not yet sold a single unit.

What is rumored

A yellow and red classic muscle car ute with a hood scoop drives along a coastal road with turquoise ocean in the background. Image: Rockstar Games, official Grand Theft Auto VI screenshot

Sensor Tower’s Karl Kontus, in an interview reported by GameSpot, projects GTA 6 preorders could reach about 25 million by launch, worth about $2 billion. He expects most of those preorders to arrive in the final week. Sensor Tower also expects roughly a 50/50 split between the $80 and $100 editions by launch. Sensor Tower is an established digital-sales analytics firm, but this is a forward projection, not a measured result.

Analysts surveyed by GamesIndustry.biz earlier in 2026 forecast first-year sales between 30 million and more than 50 million units. These are forecasts. None has been checked against sales data.

Wccftech, a secondary outlet, published a platform breakdown it read from a Sensor Tower chart: 4.51 million PlayStation and 1.57 million Xbox preorders, or $441 million and $153 million. That works out to the roughly 74% PlayStation share circulating in coverage. Treat it as unverified. The figures have not been independently confirmed, and Wccftech’s text assigns the dollar figures to the platforms in the reverse order of the chart’s own labels.

What we don’t know yet

A young woman with long braids, glasses, a denim jacket, and tiger-print thigh-high boots reclines on a surface near a colorful pool structure. Image: Rockstar Games, official Grand Theft Auto VI screenshot

The scope of the 6 million figure is disputed. Wccftech framed it as worldwide digital preorders. GamesIndustry.biz and WN Hub describe Sensor Tower’s analysis as US digital preorders only, excluding physical editions. Sensor Tower’s own caveats have not been checked directly. The weight of reporting points to US only.

Whether refunds are counted is also unsettled. Wccftech says the figures are net of returns. GameSpot reports the tracker apparently includes returned or refunded copies. With the outlets in conflict, the number should not be treated as net of returns.

It is also unclear how code-in-box physical editions would register, if at all, in a tracker limited to digital storefront preorders.

Rockstar and Take-Two have not confirmed any unit count, platform split or edition mix.

What it means

A tattooed man in a floral short-sleeve shirt, sunglasses, and a chain necklace leans on a glass railing near a modern architectural structure. Image: Rockstar Games, official Grand Theft Auto VI screenshot

Even on the narrowest reading, a US-only digital estimate that may include refunds, GTA 6 sits far ahead of the AAA benchmarks Sensor Tower uses. A 148% lead over Modern Warfare 2 is not a close race.

The figures still describe a market tracker’s view, not Take-Two’s books. The 25 million and $2 billion projections depend on a final-week surge that has not happened yet. Take-Two’s May guidance of $8 to $8.2 billion in FY2027 net bookings already assumed a very large launch.

For now, the firm data points remain Rockstar’s: November 19, $79.99, pre-load on November 12. Everything else is an estimate. Hard numbers will come from Take-Two, if and when it chooses to share them.

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